Obama establishes lead over McCain: Poll- Politics/Nation-News-The Economic Times

NEW YORK: Presumptive Democratic candidate for the US presidential election Barack Obama has established a small early lead over his rival Republican John McCain, a new poll shows.

The poll, conducted for Wall Street Journal and NBC, shows that Obama is leading McCain by 47 per cent to 41 per cent. But still the lead is significantly smaller than the Democratic Party's 16-point advantage, 51 per cent to 35 per cent, when voters are asked, without candidates' names, which party they want to win the White House.

Record unpopularity of President George Bush and the Republican Party, combined with economic worries among voters and a broad desire for change, would normally make this "the single best year for an Obama-type candidacy, and the single worst year for a McCain-type candidacy," says Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who conducts the Journal/NBC poll with Republican Neil Newhouse.

But Obama continues to do poorly among white male voters, according to the poll. More ominous is his weakness among white suburban women, who generally are open to Democratic candidates and whose votes could be decisive.

While Obama has a slight lead among white women generally, a plurality of suburbanites prefer McCain.

Some good news for the likely Democratic nominee: Despite suggestions during the nomination contest that many Hispanics and Hillary Clinton supporters wouldn't support him, the poll shows both groups overwhelmingly do.

The poll of 1,000 registered voters was conducted from Friday through Monday, a "propitious time" for Obama, Hart noted, as Clinton had conceded and endorsed her rival on Saturday.

Despite that timing and an "exceptionally strong" year for Democrats generally, Obama and McCain are in "a very competitive race for president," says Democratic pollster Hart.

The poll's margin of error is 3.1 percentage points. White men make up 40 per cent of the electorate, and the Arizona senator has a 20-point lead over Obama among them, 55 per cent to 35 per cent.

White suburban women, who make up 10 per cent of the electorate, prefer a Democrat to be president by 11 points, 47 per cent to 36 per cent, the poll shows.

And if Clinton were the nominee and the election were held now, she would beat McCain among this group by 14 points, 51 per cent to 37 per cent. Yet Obama loses to McCain by six points, 44 per cent to 38 per cent, among the same group.

The poll offers some evidence that Obama could be helped slightly by picking Clinton as his running mate. Offered a choice between an Obama-Clinton ticket and a Republican ticket of McCain and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, 39 per cent of previously undecided voters said they would choose the Democrats, with 26 per cent favoring the Republicans.

Among white suburban women, with Clinton on his ticket, Obama would go from six points down against McCain to a two-point edge.

Among all women, Obama has a big advantage: 52 per cent to 33 per cent over McCain. Among all men, McCain's lead is 49 per cent to 41 per cent, less than half his edge among white men only. Obama leads among independent voters, 41 per cent to 36 per cent.

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